|
Post by Ben on Feb 26, 2020 21:50:04 GMT
2031/32 Youth Monitoring CohortMy biggest cohort to date and, with asterisks next to 2024/25 and 2025/26 due to older and first team players being used, one of the strongest - particularly mentally. This is hopefully significant as I look to develop mentally stronger players in fitting with the core values that run through the club - good decisions, anticipation, concentration and determination. Of the crop that I have highlighted - Diego Samaniego has the third highest average of all players who I have monitored, only bettered by 21 year old Benjamin and 19 year old Juan Jose Rueda, both of whom were signed for the first team in the first two seasons that I tracked them. He is also better than Villalba during his second stint (2025/26) of tracking and 0.6 better than Ghita Hreniuc and 0.7 better than Juan Jose Bono. Burgos sits 12th, Escobar 14th, Dean 16th and Tavares 22nd - so I must say that this is a strong group. especially compared to the 2026/27 cohort of Santiago Santos [20th], Juan Jose Septien [21st], Francisco [23rd], Alberto Ropero [26th] and Sonny Godwin [27th] - with Septien and Ropero first team players now.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 26, 2020 21:51:09 GMT
Registration rules
Another non-EU slot freed up!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 26, 2020 21:58:02 GMT
Affiliate
After badgering for different affiliates that I could then push towards giving me foreign youngsters, my reputation boost meant that I could now chose directly. The key I have found here, rather than look at reputation alone, is to skim through teams who do not play in a division. This gives a lot of smaller clubs, granted, but also lists academies, who obviously don't play in their respective leagues. I have used that to my advantage and formed an alliance with RTD Academy - the Right To Dream Academy. They already link with Man City and Osters (I thought it was Nordsjalland too, but this was either cancelled or the Danish league not in enough detail to add in) and the deal means I can get youngsters from their academy straight into mine. Fortunately, they have great facilities: Ghana is treated as a non-EU country for Spain due to being part of the Africa, Caribbean and Pacific Group of States nations so, even if they don't have a citizenship straight away (and will probably take 10 years if I recall) they won't clog up my 'marquee' slots.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 26, 2020 22:01:59 GMT
Stadium CompletionA very low-key message (from previous years) to announce our new stadium being ready. Not huge, but nearly twice as big as the Pedro Escartin!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 28, 2020 20:41:13 GMT
2031/32 Transfer DealingsI'm in mid July now but feel that I'm already reasonably well set for the season ahead and, in fact, nearing a point whereby extensive transfer windows are a thing of the past - instead focusing on one or two possibly more expensive players who are the finishing touches to the side. Firstly, my incoming deals... Each of the permanent deals would have broken my transfer record, such is the size of the club currently. Firstly, Neyveson made his loan deal a permanent one and I hope he will continue the promise that he showed last year. Not a single negative thing about his game and some fantastic attributes for the kind of forward that I want. He was, at times, a little naive and lacking confidence in front of goal, but I think that will only improve over time. I then paid €4m for Franco Gonia, who had grown unhappy at Racing in Argentina. He was on my radar as he'd ran absolute riot, setting a new divisional record of 22 goal contributions (17 of those being assists). Gonia is the final piece of the midfield jigsaw, initially partnering Carles Alena before sharing the space with Juan Jose Bono when the great man (funny I should be so attached to a non newgen who has been at the club for just 2 years) retires. Excellent passing, decisions and vision combined with some good traits should mean he could be special! Lastly, I paid €3.3m for Jose Carlos from relegated Betis. It normally goes against my principles signing important players from relegated clubs as they tend to be an important part in their downfall. The former Betis man probably fits into that category, no goals in 22 appearances at a rating of 6.66 - and, maybe even worse, only 9 goals from 187 games whilst being in Spain. The ex-Sao Paulo man, who converted to Spanish nationality, scored well in South America but looks to have been played, strangely, as a DM whilst at Betis but I do recall facing him as a WBR last season. He's pacy, can dribble, pass, spot a gap and is incredibly composed yet incredibly unpredictable. I think, out on the right wing - he'll be able to beat his man through either pure pace or trickery - the extra dimension that I just didn't have in Varela. I have also added Carlos Prieto on loan for some extra defensive cover. He's a typical Barcelona type player and he'll be useful support for us. Sadly, I don't have a fee agreed as I did with Neyveson last year. ---- Somewhat of a clearout, with more names only appearing on the B-team transfers. These players have been out on loan and not developed as much as I wanted so have been moved on. Varela, Puigmal, Fernandes and Lato have been upgraded with the new signings. --- I'm feeling very confident about the squad with only a few areas of weakness, both in terms of quality and depth. The next few years are big for the B-team as I look to use them as a development tool, reducing the amount of transfer windows as busy at this one.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 29, 2020 12:00:14 GMT
Squad Numbers
The changes signify that Navarro is probably going to be first choice, ahead of Sabena, Carlos Alberto has usurped Benjamin as best centre back, Neyveson takes over from Pena and Gonia and Carlos are going to be first team players. In terms of player type, I think Gonia and Alena are probably numbered the wrong way round with the more classy playmaker Alena probably deserving of the 10 shirt.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Feb 29, 2020 23:55:43 GMT
August/September 2031I've been having a little play around with some analysis stuff, firstly from someone that Guido linked in his blog (but I've lost it now - I'm so sorry but your analysis of effectiveness spreadsheet was awesome and I've utilised it very much) and secondly, from data taken from this link. Although it's for FM18, it still serves the purpose that I want. Analysing, roughly, xG, or expected goals. This is not an exact science as it doesn't take shot location into consideration, merely what the game thinks is a clear cut chance. I'm using the following formula to simulate xG: xG = (Shots*0.005)+(SOT*0.15)+(CCC*0.73)This is taken from the above site and we aren't too far from his numbers, hence why I've stuck to them. I, also, have one only save for comparison - and only data from one club. So it may not be completely accurate but at least I'm comparing apples with apples, or Guadalajara with Guadalajara, if you will. Whilst this start may not look promising - three defeats, a lack of goals and more mid-table obscurity, there is cause for hope. I'm very aware that, with a single person game, I can write pretty much anything about what is happening and nobody will know any different - but now I have some statistics that can help back up what I've seen in the matches. We were really unlucky against Levante - coming up against a good keeper who kept us at bay, time and time again. However - we did fail to turn up for the next two matches, nicking a win away at Granada through a cheap concession, a goal from a second ball at a corner which Septien tucked away well. If xG is to be believed, we should have picked up twelve points from September, edging all of the games and culminating in a thrashing of Villarreal, who had nine put past them by Real earlier in the season. --- I'm able to begin comparing home and away form and how teams play against us at home and away. Right now - we seem a little wasteful at home, maybe struggling to break down those tighter travelling defences but this data is in it's early stages and I look forward to seeing how it grows!
|
|
|
Post by ttgb on Mar 1, 2020 8:40:28 GMT
Great reading once again. You seem like the only one posting in here at present but wanted to say I continue to read all your updates.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 1, 2020 10:22:23 GMT
Minor editI read back through my post last night and realised that I'd calculated the total shots incorrectly (probably the easiest metric to record, too). Here is the correct display - now including another game because I'd played another one since posting!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 1, 2020 10:23:12 GMT
Great reading once again. You seem like the only one posting in here at present but wanted to say I continue to read all your updates. Yeah - it's all gone a bit quiet at the moment and I don't know why! Thanks for reading still and I hope to see you posting again soon, as I've always enjoyed your saves.
|
|
|
Post by ttgb on Mar 1, 2020 13:27:41 GMT
Great reading once again. You seem like the only one posting in here at present but wanted to say I continue to read all your updates. Yeah - it's all gone a bit quiet at the moment and I don't know why! Thanks for reading still and I hope to see you posting again soon, as I've always enjoyed your saves. Hopefully with the new update hopefully more will post. My FM isn't what it used to be. I started with a Stuttgart save which I thought would last me a couple of seasons and then I thought I would start a long term save and post again, but my save stuck and played about 7 seasons now and seems to late to post about it.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 1, 2020 20:09:59 GMT
New affiliateDespite my want for South American flair and Mexican born players - we are beginning to build a foothold in Africa with two academies on board who will provide us players for our own youth intake. I can reference the quote from Johan Cruyff again that, however good Spanish players are, they don't fit the mould of every type of player - so youngsters from these two African nations will give me a chance to address that through my own academy. What makes this sweeter though is the Cotonou agreement, meaning that Malian youngsters are not non-EU and can play straight away in the B-team and not impact my quota in the first team should they be good enough. --- This academy model will continue and I'm hoping that I can make this worldwide once my reputation allows. For now, I'm filling my boots with West African nations but I know that Australia has good academies and there are sure to be some in the Americas, although I am not sure of any names at this point.
|
|
|
Post by Reiver on Mar 2, 2020 8:19:50 GMT
Great reading once again. You seem like the only one posting in here at present but wanted to say I continue to read all your updates. Yeah - it's all gone a bit quiet at the moment and I don't know why! Thanks for reading still and I hope to see you posting again soon, as I've always enjoyed your saves. In my case, it's simply lack of time - i have a half written update that should be ready in a couple of days and another one to write right after that.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 4, 2020 19:37:31 GMT
October/November 2031Some more xG statistics as I move through the second two-month block of matches and this one has probably been most notable for our lack of goals, despite good chances being made. xG has made me look at clear cut chances and I may, if I can find even more time to work through analysis etc, look at shot positions etc but for now, I believe the game identifies CCC's reasonably well. To have made four against Leganes and not score any of them shows that we are capable and, even though we did allow 18 shots, a season high for a home fixture, we should have been more clinical in front of goal. Even though I'm tracking the points vs xG points difference (currently sits at -12 meaning we'd be on 31 points right now), I'm not writing this saying that 'everything is alright and we're just unlucky.' To hold Real to a draw was good and our game plan worked, even if it did completely stifle our own attack, it left Real only one option - long shots. They created just one half chance which shows the strength of both our defence and our defensive tactics. To go off the back of that and end up with two dour draws against Girona and Celta show that our offensive approach isn't good enough still and we are still lacking penetration going forward - although, on xG, we didn't maybe deserved four points rather than two. Our Athletic performance was again dour, but we are not used to facing defensive teams on our travels - as most still attack us at home. From somewhere, we pulled out an incisive victory over then-top-of-the-table Atletico, although both goals came from defenders. --- I have every faith in Neyveson, Septien, Samuel and Jose Carlos but something is amiss up top. I know that these players aren't better than defenders somewhere close to half of the teams in this league but we need to do something to change this. Changes to tactics aren't having the desired effect - we've played with WB/IF and IWB/W combos, changes in mentality, playing style, forward runs from deeper etc - so my next progression is to look at how well we are training those things. Here comes my next obsessive analysis!
|
|
|
Post by Dirk Nowitzki on Mar 4, 2020 22:49:15 GMT
Really loving this! I keep checking in to the forum to read about your save. Expected goals is very high on my list of things that I'd like to see implemented in the game. I wish there was an easy way to extract lots of shot statistics (CCC, long shots, penalty's etc.) from FM, from different leagues, so you could run a regression and get a half decent approximation of xG. It would still be limited compared to actual xG models, but it would be very interesting and probably helpful in seeing a general trend in performances. I'm tempted to start a new save and keep track of this as well. It may be important to take note of which shots lead to a goal and not just the total amount of goals and shots, but I'm not sure how problematic it is to keep track of that. This is one of the few other things I found about attempts to recreate xG in FM, which is interesting but a looot of manual work. Anyway, keep up the good work!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 5, 2020 14:00:10 GMT
Youth Intake PreviewNo news of another son but I'll keep hoping!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 5, 2020 20:41:00 GMT
Season Mid point - xG: Has it helped?I've now calculated 19 games worth of xG data (obviously at a really basic level) so I'm going to dump some information in here and hopefully come back to it over the next few game months when I have looked through it a few times. Firstly, the overall data: xG has up nine points better of than we currently are - which is in eight place (as of mid-Jan now the first full round of fixtures is complete). A look at our goal tally tells a worrying tale, just 0.89 goals scored per game to this point - 42% of all of xG are actually converted. Conversely, we have a good defensive record but 49% of all xG allowed have been scored. --- I have further broken down the shot types to have a look into our penetration and how good we actually are turning our chances into goals: Our goal conversion percentage on the road is a worry, but we are naturally going to score less away from home, given home field advantage and how other teams approach games at their home stadium. We seem to execute our slightly more defensive road game plan well, allowing more shows but they are from further out, so less are on target and considerably more shots are needed before they create a clear cut chance, or even a chance. At home, we are strongest at converting our own shots bu is 17% really a good level for a top flight team? I need to compare this kind of thing will real life data to see what a ball-park figure is. ---- Next, I've been able to look at the same comparison, just spread over home games and away games: 20 points at home, including 3 each against Barca, Sevilla and Atletico but only eight points on the road. Probably expected. But to be scoring 1.9x more goals per game at home is a worry. Our xG is relatively similar for both - allowing more away is probably expected but I'm happy to see that we are creating on the road and now need to find out how to score from them! ---- The last bit of data I have extrapolated is, using reputation ratings, a comparison of our performances and xG data against sides of different strengths in this league: From this, I know I've got some tough away games against teams of equal stature, which we have really struggled with at home. We have to go away to Barca and Atletico but have beat both of those at home - knowing we'll have to enlist a similar game plan to what shut out Real Madrid in a drab attacking performance from us. We have really struggled against those teams that are now predicted to be around the same level, failing to deliver more than 1.0 xG in away games at Athletic and Granada - the teams we really now should be vying with. --- I'll pick away at bits of these as I look into them more over the next few game months!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 5, 2020 20:42:47 GMT
Really loving this! I keep checking in to the forum to read about your save. Expected goals is very high on my list of things that I'd like to see implemented in the game. I wish there was an easy way to extract lots of shot statistics (CCC, long shots, penalty's etc.) from FM, from different leagues, so you could run a regression and get a half decent approximation of xG. It would still be limited compared to actual xG models, but it would be very interesting and probably helpful in seeing a general trend in performances. I'm tempted to start a new save and keep track of this as well. It may be important to take note of which shots lead to a goal and not just the total amount of goals and shots, but I'm not sure how problematic it is to keep track of that. This is one of the few other things I found about attempts to recreate xG in FM, which is interesting but a looot of manual work. Anyway, keep up the good work! Hello - long time no speak! Are you still playing FM? I know - xG seems to be the natural progression for football and with data so instant and more and more people getting into it, I'd be surprised if it wasn't. My method is super basic and, as I said, it's for my team and can't be compared as I don't have the time! My only comparison is game vs game rather than club vs club which is what I'd really want to do.
|
|
|
Post by Dirk Nowitzki on Mar 6, 2020 15:21:58 GMT
Every now and then! I played around with 1860 Munich for about 3,5 seasons and got them to the Bundesliga, but this took about 4 months and I have barely played in the last month, so I feel a bit disconnected to the save. Interesting post again! I think 0.73 xG per CCC is way too high to be honest. When I was playing around with this a bit yesterday, in the 20 Bundesliga games I played with 1860 Munich there had been a total of 100 CCC's and 58 goals. Even if you assume that all goals came from CCC's, the xG for this is still only 0.58. Besides this, I think it shouldn't really matter if a shot was on target or not for the xG calculation, because it doesn't necessarily say anything about the quality of the chance. If you would factor in the outcome of a shot to assess the xG of that specific chance, any shot off target always results in a xG of zero, but it could have been a great opportunity to score. Another point I'd like to make is that using the xG of a game to determine what should have been the outcome may not be very informative, since this almost excludes the chance of a draw. If for example the xG's of a game are 2.13 and 2.04, the most like outcome would be a draw but you would award the full points to the team with 2.13. It may be better to use a certain range that would count as a draw. Yesterday I holidayed a season in several leagues with the intention to create my own FM xG model, but it didn't work out as I hoped yet. It seems that the game simulates games differently when you are not actually playing, and there is no analysis tab for each game, just the number of shots. I believe penalties are always counted as a CCC, and in one game Chelsea had 0 CCC's but Jorginho scored a penalty, so this doesn't seem to be a reliable way to get the data. Some other things I am considering is that CCC's and half chances may not be all that different in FM, and that I'd just group them as big chances. On the other side, all non CCC/half chances would be small chances then. Across 15 leagues (including some second divisions) in the holiday save, penalties seemed to be scored at a rate of 80%, so I want to take these out of the regular CCC's as well. The xG model would then look something like this: xG = 0.80 * penalties + 0.x * big chances + 0.y * small chances. When I put the data for 20 1860 München Bundesliga games (for both teams, so 40 observations) in Stata, the coefficient for big chances was 0.16 and for small chances 0.055, which seems quite reasonable and I believe that's pretty similar to real life xG numbers. For the holidayed games though, this didn't work at all based on 60 Premier League observations. The xG for big chances was 0.09 and small chances 0.13, so that doesn't make sense. Not grouping the chances into big/small made it look even worse, with CCC's only giving 0.03 xG and long shots about 0.12, so I think using holidayed stats is not going to work. I have just started a new Leeds United save, and I intend to use data from that save to construct an xG model. A problem is though, you don't know which shots led to a goal, unless you take note of this during a game (which I'd probably fail to do consistently). Afterwards, or for games that didn't feature your own team, you can not see this anymore I believe (unless I'm missing something). Otherwise you could just calculate which percentage of a certain kind of shot ends in a goal. So instead I'll just try to collect enough data to hopefully get a decent prediction from a model. Teams that have many CCC's also tend to have more shots in general, so maybe a model with such limited (and not great quality) data about the shots is not able to distinguish this though, but I'm gonna see what happens! Early signs from the 1860 data are actually not that bad! Sorry if I rambled on way too much haha, you really inspired me and hopefully I can come up with a formula that pretty accurately calculates xG! Edit: just collected data from 25 (simply the last 25 non-1860 games) more Bundesliga games in my 1860 save (all these games actually do have the analysis tab, so I guess this means they are fully simulated?). One thing I noticed is that these games feature less CCC's and half chances than mine, but maybe that's down to tactics. xG for big chances in this sample is 0.123 and for small chances 0.068. I feel like I need a larger sample for this, so I'm going to try to collect data for all Championship games in my Leeds save.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 6, 2020 21:35:49 GMT
Every now and then! I played around with 1860 Munich for about 3,5 seasons and got them to the Bundesliga, but this took about 4 months and I have barely played in the last month, so I feel a bit disconnected to the save. Interesting post again! I think 0.73 xG per CCC is way too high to be honest. When I was playing around with this a bit yesterday, in the 20 Bundesliga games I played with 1860 Munich there had been a total of 100 CCC's and 58 goals. Even if you assume that all goals came from CCC's, the xG for this is still only 0.58. Besides this, I think it shouldn't really matter if a shot was on target or not for the xG calculation, because it doesn't necessarily say anything about the quality of the chance. If you would factor in the outcome of a shot to assess the xG of that specific chance, any shot off target always results in a xG of zero, but it could have been a great opportunity to score. Another point I'd like to make is that using the xG of a game to determine what should have been the outcome may not be very informative, since this almost excludes the chance of a draw. If for example the xG's of a game are 2.13 and 2.04, the most like outcome would be a draw but you would award the full points to the team with 2.13. It may be better to use a certain range that would count as a draw. Yesterday I holidayed a season in several leagues with the intention to create my own FM xG model, but it didn't work out as I hoped yet. It seems that the game simulates games differently when you are not actually playing, and there is no analysis tab for each game, just the number of shots. I believe penalties are always counted as a CCC, and in one game Chelsea had 0 CCC's but Jorginho scored a penalty, so this doesn't seem to be a reliable way to get the data. Some other things I am considering is that CCC's and half chances may not be all that different in FM, and that I'd just group them as big chances. On the other side, all non CCC/half chances would be small chances then. Across 15 leagues (including some second divisions) in the holiday save, penalties seemed to be scored at a rate of 80%, so I want to take these out of the regular CCC's as well. The xG model would then look something like this: xG = 0.80 * penalties + 0.x * big chances + 0.y * small chances. When I put the data for 20 1860 München Bundesliga games (for both teams, so 40 observations) in Stata, the coefficient for big chances was 0.16 and for small chances 0.055, which seems quite reasonable and I believe that's pretty similar to real life xG numbers. For the holidayed games though, this didn't work at all based on 60 Premier League observations. The xG for big chances was 0.09 and small chances 0.13, so that doesn't make sense. Not grouping the chances into big/small made it look even worse, with CCC's only giving 0.03 xG and long shots about 0.12, so I think using holidayed stats is not going to work. I have just started a new Leeds United save, and I intend to use data from that save to construct an xG model. A problem is though, you don't know which shots led to a goal, unless you take note of this during a game (which I'd probably fail to do consistently). Afterwards, or for games that didn't feature your own team, you can not see this anymore I believe (unless I'm missing something). Otherwise you could just calculate which percentage of a certain kind of shot ends in a goal. So instead I'll just try to collect enough data to hopefully get a decent prediction from a model. Teams that have many CCC's also tend to have more shots in general, so maybe a model with such limited (and not great quality) data about the shots is not able to distinguish this though, but I'm gonna see what happens! Early signs from the 1860 data are actually not that bad! Sorry if I rambled on way too much haha, you really inspired me and hopefully I can come up with a formula that pretty accurately calculates xG! Edit: just collected data from 25 (simply the last 25 non-1860 games) more Bundesliga games in my 1860 save (all these games actually do have the analysis tab, so I guess this means they are fully simulated?). One thing I noticed is that these games feature less CCC's and half chances than mine, but maybe that's down to tactics. xG for big chances in this sample is 0.123 and for small chances 0.068. I feel like I need a larger sample for this, so I'm going to try to collect data for all Championship games in my Leeds save. This has pretty much blown my mind! I'm very new to xG and still not really 100% understanding of what is behind it and, if I'm honest, was just looking to understand chances created vs goals, which has been my big issue with this low scoring save. For comparison, we have had 40 CCC's and 20 goals so actually ours is just 0.5. I just ran with what I had read in that blog, to be fair, without much further reading. It has somewhat spiralled since that original post and I've been trying to educate myself more over this past week. I was also interested with the draw thing - as we miraculously managed to 'draw on xG' but that was the only time and that was because we had the same Shots/SoT/CCC/HC - but that really doesn't tell a true story of how the game unfolded. As you said - I would love FM to calculate this kind of thing and would love to see your more detailed version too! As for me, it's gone some way to prove a point to myself about my tactics but will probably stop after one season as it has somewhat taken over the game!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 6, 2020 21:50:41 GMT
December 2031/January 2032
Our strange form seems to continue - defeats to Eibar (20th) and Getafe (19th) yet a win over Barcelona and a cup win over Sevilla show that we are more than capable of holding our own. Both defeats, and the one against Sociedad, were subjects of utterly dire offensive play, where we somehow managed to score in two of the three ties. --- For comparison, at this point last year, we were averaging 1.09 ppg and sat 12th, with 23 points from 21 games. This season sees a 0.27 ppg increase and sees us three places higher. We are well on track to record an improvement in finish and points, up from the 47 that we took last year. Eight victories is just three away from our total last year and we have sixteen games left to play. All in all, despite some struggles, I feel we are much better set this year and have made progress on the pitch. --- Worryingly, my shortlist is still empty, I have very few ideas of where I want to strengthen and some questions over first team players - I definitely need to review the long term future of the club and try and formulate my own season by season plan for first team players.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 8, 2020 8:26:25 GMT
February/March 2032The two months started with a tough cup tie, at home to Atletico. They took the lead early, exposing my defensive line playing from wing to wing but really did nothing to create much from that point. A small switch to a wider defensive line nullified their wingers and, to be fair, we should have won - missing a penalty and having a goal chalked off for offside in second half stoppage time. Much can be taken from our performances against the top teams as we seem to really pick our game up but also exploit spaces that they leave freely. Our home tie against Real Madrid started perfectly, with Neyveson scoring two wonderful solo goals after exploiting space in Real's 4-2-3-1 shape before beating defenders and the goalkeeper. A soft 72nd minute penalty gave Real a lifeline, followed by a stupid mistake in the 74th as they completed the comeback. Another really well executed game plan sees us unlucky not to take all three points. We then threw everything at Granada, but the inconsistencies continue to haunt us as we couldn't find the back of the net after falling behind to an early goal against the run of play. We were similarly unlucky away at Barcelona but couldn't quite disjoint their 3-5-2 in the same way we got in the spaces of Real's tactic and caused them troubles. If we give teams like Barca two CCC's - they're going to score. This time they scored both. It's nice to watch Barca vs The Barca Model in action and, honestly, we aren't too far away. We ended the month at our best against Levante - with more evidence that our shape works best against teams that don't field anyone in the DM role - this time a 4-4-1-1. Neyveson showed that, on his day, he's unplayable - winning all of his headers, completing seven dribbles, and scoring twice. --- March started with a resounding victory over Elche - where Neyveson bagged another brace and should have had way more. Fresh off the back of Player of the Month, following his four February goals, he's getting into some great positions - strange as I expected the 4-2-3-1 (with two DM and 3 in the midfield strata) position to be restrictive for him - and had four CCC's of his own. Samuel added a tap in, taking him to five for the season, my second top scorer and putting serious pressure of Jose Carlos for the starting berth. We continued our fine form with an oustanding comeback victory over Alaves. 2-0 down very early in the game, we would normally shut up shop and create nothing but fought back, albeit with two goals from free kicks but our general play very much led me to think that the points were deserved. Next, bottom of the league Eibar came to town and they certainly didn't come with any intention to win. 1-0 was a lot closer than the game should have been but there were issues that are repeating again and again - possession in the opposition half and penetration from deep. 3 points is 3 points though. We ended March against Real Sociedad - who moved the ball really quickly from back to front and caused us lots of problems. The lack of anyone in the striker strata gave them 10 yards with the ball in defence and we, even with a higher line of engagement, just couldn't get close enough to them. --- As a long time lover of calcio, I've always been in the mindset that tactics should be pro-active - setting our stall out to stop them playing, and that is something that has always been mirrored in my FM saves. In this save, I've tried a different approach - simply having a base shape and trying to change it on the fly. The two months of moving away from xG but watching the vast majority of the matches (I normally go for extended or key with goal replays only) - I have realised that, despite the main shape, I really need to employ little tweaks for different team shapes and different mentalities. The xG showed me that we performed poorly against teams with the same reputation as us - well, we beat Elche, Alaves and Eibar this month by changing little bits of our play and that needs to be a pre-requisite from now on. --- I have also secured a third African feeder club - the well known and respected ASEC Mimosas. They join clubs in Mali and Ghana as African areas now providing me with some youth players. As my reputation grows, I want to move this into South American but, as mentioned before, these players do not count against Non-EU rules and therefore can be utilised in my B-team if they aren't good enough for my first team.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 8, 2020 8:30:29 GMT
Youth Candidates - 2031/32
After two great intakes, we have been brought down to earth somewhat with this. None of the three academies (plus the Romanian one that I butchered to provide us youth players) have done so and we've not had any Paraguayans for the first time in three years. Sales and Catalan are the best of the average bunch.
|
|
|
Post by Dirk Nowitzki on Mar 8, 2020 14:42:25 GMT
I'm very new to xG and still not really 100% understanding of what is behind it and, if I'm honest, was just looking to understand chances created vs goals, which has been my big issue with this low scoring save. For comparison, we have had 40 CCC's and 20 goals so actually ours is just 0.5. I just ran with what I had read in that blog, to be fair, without much further reading. It has somewhat spiralled since that original post and I've been trying to educate myself more over this past week. I was also interested with the draw thing - as we miraculously managed to 'draw on xG' but that was the only time and that was because we had the same Shots/SoT/CCC/HC - but that really doesn't tell a true story of how the game unfolded. As you said - I would love FM to calculate this kind of thing and would love to see your more detailed version too! As for me, it's gone some way to prove a point to myself about my tactics but will probably stop after one season as it has somewhat taken over the game! Haha sorry, the nerd in me took over! To me it seems that you overestimate the likelihood of scoring from CCC's. I would guess that out of those 40 CCC's you only scored about 7 of them. In real life this also happens a lot, often when people say "he should have scored that!", the reality is that the xG is below 0.2. You are totally right about xG not always being able to tell the true story of a game. What it's really good at though, is showing a general trend of performances if you look at a bunch of recent games. I feel like way too often in real life decisions are made based on outcomes (like firing managers or paying big money for a striker that was on a hot streak of games), rather than looking at underlying numbers like xG that could suggest if performances are sustainable. Great move to get the link with ASEC Mimosas! I always find myself checking their team every now and then to see if I can steal some great talents from them.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 8, 2020 18:17:58 GMT
April/May 2032
A really strong end to the season with some fantastic performances, even if we are still a little short on the actual goal conversion front. We faced a different beast at home to Athletic, with them having a man sent off inside 7 minutes but refusing to sit back, playing a lopsided formation with only one winger, playing as a Trequartista, who kept swapping sides. It meant trying to punish the space was hard and I knew we needed more than just one goal. A set piece concession, which has become a pattern of late, was enough to drop two points A fantastic couple of away victories over Atletico and Leganes before a hard fought 0-0 against Celta, in a match that, again, I felt we deserved to win. We were outplayed by Sevilla, with their width causing us problems - which saw me revert to a man marking system on their wingers and their striker (by my half back) but, as always, that opened the door for their midfield, who scored both goals. We once again failed to beat Mallorca, who set up without a single attacking duty in a deep, defensive 4-1-4-1 which we just could not break down. A stunning free kick from Brian Pena earned us a point. The last two games saw two great performances and evened out our quite poor home record. --- I am going to analyse the playing statistics in a separate post but I am delighted with the improvement, of eleven points and two places, and the football that is beginning to be evident more often at this club.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 8, 2020 18:19:33 GMT
I'm very new to xG and still not really 100% understanding of what is behind it and, if I'm honest, was just looking to understand chances created vs goals, which has been my big issue with this low scoring save. For comparison, we have had 40 CCC's and 20 goals so actually ours is just 0.5. I just ran with what I had read in that blog, to be fair, without much further reading. It has somewhat spiralled since that original post and I've been trying to educate myself more over this past week. I was also interested with the draw thing - as we miraculously managed to 'draw on xG' but that was the only time and that was because we had the same Shots/SoT/CCC/HC - but that really doesn't tell a true story of how the game unfolded. As you said - I would love FM to calculate this kind of thing and would love to see your more detailed version too! As for me, it's gone some way to prove a point to myself about my tactics but will probably stop after one season as it has somewhat taken over the game! Haha sorry, the nerd in me took over! To me it seems that you overestimate the likelihood of scoring from CCC's. I would guess that out of those 40 CCC's you only scored about 7 of them. In real life this also happens a lot, often when people say "he should have scored that!", the reality is that the xG is below 0.2. You are totally right about xG not always being able to tell the true story of a game. What it's really good at though, is showing a general trend of performances if you look at a bunch of recent games. I feel like way too often in real life decisions are made based on outcomes (like firing managers or paying big money for a striker that was on a hot streak of games), rather than looking at underlying numbers like xG that could suggest if performances are sustainable. Great move to get the link with ASEC Mimosas! I always find myself checking their team every now and then to see if I can steal some great talents from them. Yep - I agree. I took the formula from a site that attempted that on FM18, before HC even came in! I'm going to step away from it for a little while knowing that it was quite interesting, if a little skewed, but moving back to watching the game more has actually given me far more insight!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 8, 2020 18:39:50 GMT
Youth Monitoring UpdateAnother group of players through and this year we have made typical progress with physical attributes growing most at this age. It's nice to see a good technical increased as well as anticipation and decisions. Here is how this group compares: Escobar slots in as the fifth 'best' improvement with Samaniego the eighth and Burgos in 20th, with Dean and Tavares 22nd and 23rd. Interestingly, Diego Samaniego becomes the top rated first year player to leave this monitoring group - according to the mean of their attributes at the end of the year. He is 0.7 average points higher than Samuel and Alex Villasanti and Israel Escobar also make it onto this list. --- There are definitely lots of positives coming from these youth intakes and I hope that we will continue with a strong production line and commitment to youth development.
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 9, 2020 21:37:09 GMT
Stadium Expansion
The Rayo Vallecano stadium holds 24k so this is a good test of how many fans we have!
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 9, 2020 21:39:07 GMT
Save Tracker
|
|
|
Post by Ben on Mar 9, 2020 22:06:35 GMT
Long Term PlansI'm trying to move towards being totally reliant on my youth system but I feel that it's still several years away. However, I do need to make sure that I have a long term succession plan for the players in the squad. This is always a little bit of a prediction and somewhat optimistic, presuming that all the 'top' players perform, don't have their heads turned or run out contract and that all of the 'youth' players develop in the ways that are necessary for them to both fit the preferred attribute mould and also to be good enough to become a 'top' player. Firstly, here is the first team squad going in to next season: I'm confident posting this now - before the pre-season and transfer window has even started. There is only one change that will be happening this summer and that is the promotion and Alex Villasanti to the first team. The young Paraguayan academy product is just as good as Villalba and actually offers a bit more playmaking ability. The squad is young and, whilst somewhat inexperienced, has quality in areas that I want it to have. The standout players for replacement due to their age are Alena and Puig and the standout players for replacement due to my own preferences are Sabena: who is not good enough on the ball, Navarro: who is more of a centre back but not as good as my centre backs and wingers Pena, Septien and Jose Carlos: who have been failing to provide the goal threat that I want. Obviously this is a long list and is to be actioned over several years, with players collected and monitored over the long term. However, a good indication of my setup for the future can be seen by looking at my 'development' squad. This is not necessarily the B team but a selection of players who I would like, in an ideal world, to be first team players. I am well aware that some aren't good enough and nor will ever be good enough but I detailed this at the start of the save - I want to mould players in my own way but then allow them to move on to pastures new should they wish (although I now have 2 first teams to fill). Here is the development squad: I've added the signings of Fulvio (€675k) and Celsinho (€12k) to fill in two gaps - as I hope to have a set of four full backs of Bravo and Celsinho (stronger left foot) and Lucas and Samaniego (stronger right foot) and for the sweeper keeper to take over from Puig in a few years. They both have Spanish citizenship so are eligible for my B team in the mean time - although Celsinho's deal doesn't conclude until the summer of 2033, the next one. In the midfield, I have pinned hopes on Israel Escobar, who has been converted to an MC over the last year. His excellent technique and first touch really make me think he could fit the mould of Alena and I hope his potential will allow him to live up to that. On the wing, Lyndson, a first team member for two years with 30+ appearances and a really decent 'DNA match' just needs some more game time so will probably drop down a division this summer. The remainder of the players are less positive, with Palacios the best of the bunch remaining but needing to develop his concentration, as well as his all round consistency to usurp Benjamin, the weakest of the three centre backs. Oprea, Burgos and Tavares are all youngsters and have more of a chance than Dominguez and Antonio who may well have found their level in the B squad. I will look for the odd player to flesh out these roles but, as you can see, it's a very restricted window to fit these attribute thresholds as well as have the potential to be a first team player, all on a really small budget. --- Things are looking bright for the future. We need to continue pushing on with the squad, allowing youngsters a chance and trying to spot those who fit my strict recruitment policy.
|
|