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Post by Dirk Nowitzki on Mar 12, 2020 9:52:28 GMT
Great improvements on and off the pitch Ben! In the meantime, I have played half a season with Leeds in the Championship and recorded all the shot statistics of all teams for those 23 games. So based on a total of 276 games and thus 552 observations I got to the following model: xG = 0.80*Penalties + 0.312*Non-penalty Clear Cut Chances + 0.154*Half Chances + 0.055*Small Chances There didn't seem to be much of a difference between long shots and other small chances, so I just grouped them. The formula for small chances is just total shots - CCC - HC. Conversion rates should cross over to other leagues pretty well I think. I might test this when I get promoted to the Premier League, but it's a boring task to record all the data so maybe I can't be arsed, as in the big picture it's not really that useful in FM unfortunately. I did enjoy doing this from a nerd perspective though haha. For these games, your xG for would be 22.39 and xG against 16.55. This is assuming you only had the one penalty from your screenshots against Atletico, and the opponents didn't have any. So given your goal record of 16:12 this would mean both you and your opponents were unlucky/bad with finishing. Anyway, not sure how useful this actually is in FM, but I thought I'd let you know the results of this. I might start a separate thread about my Leeds exploits, but I never go nearly as far into a save as you do unfortunately.
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ianf
New Member
Posts: 92
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Post by ianf on Mar 12, 2020 17:29:44 GMT
Man I learn something new and get inspired every time I come to a Ben thread. I am still playing but clearly I’m terrible at posting. Thanks for keeping us rolling Ben!
I’m gonna do some xG calls from my saves based on this stuff.
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Post by Ben on Mar 14, 2020 19:28:15 GMT
The Shortlist
I want to develop the best players possible for my first team but I feel that, this year definitely, a top rated youngster has far less certainty of being a world class player than ever before - and I've first hand experienced that, although to a lesser extent with the amount of potential I felt they had, with the likes of Francisco, Olawale, Sunny Godwin and Idrissa Mendy. Therefore, I think that I need to invest in talent from other clubs and countries to widen the pool of youngsters available to me - a strategy that will probably run alongside the 'marquee' approach I took last year with San Marino, although I haven't really been able to identify the 25+ star who would strengthen the team within my constraints. The big thing about these players is that the all are players in positions whereby I lack potential and 60% of them hold a Spanish passport, easing up any non-EU issues that I may normally have when recruiting from South America. I already have a pre-arranged transfer for Celsinho to join at the end of the season and I screenshotted him over the summer when I announced the deals for himself and Fulvio, the goalkeeper. I won't show you the rest until/if I sign them but I have put them into the DNA tracker, with the exception of Alcolea, who I was still scouting properly when I made it! Immediately, I can see the improvement that this will have - these youngsters, based on their attributes that I want for my style of play, are just as good as those in the first team already. Delgado isn't two footed, as I want from my wingers, but offers a great 'second striker' option with his excellent finishing. Galindo is really small, has great vision and passing and is Messi-esque in his game. I foresee the three of those with Samuel (meaning that Pena, Septien and Jose Carlos are moved out) as my four first team wingers for the future. Ronaldo (how could I turn down a player with that name!) is a little raw, as you'd expect for a 17 year old, but his potential seems to be massive. Needs to work on a few things but an upgrade on Antonio, my current B team striker. The future is, hopefully, bright!
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Post by Ben on Mar 14, 2020 19:31:02 GMT
Great improvements on and off the pitch Ben! In the meantime, I have played half a season with Leeds in the Championship and recorded all the shot statistics of all teams for those 23 games. So based on a total of 276 games and thus 552 observations I got to the following model: xG = 0.80*Penalties + 0.312*Non-penalty Clear Cut Chances + 0.154*Half Chances + 0.055*Small Chances There didn't seem to be much of a difference between long shots and other small chances, so I just grouped them. The formula for small chances is just total shots - CCC - HC. Conversion rates should cross over to other leagues pretty well I think. I might test this when I get promoted to the Premier League, but it's a boring task to record all the data so maybe I can't be arsed, as in the big picture it's not really that useful in FM unfortunately. I did enjoy doing this from a nerd perspective though haha. For these games, your xG for would be 22.39 and xG against 16.55. This is assuming you only had the one penalty from your screenshots against Atletico, and the opponents didn't have any. So given your goal record of 16:12 this would mean both you and your opponents were unlucky/bad with finishing. Anyway, not sure how useful this actually is in FM, but I thought I'd let you know the results of this. I might start a separate thread about my Leeds exploits, but I never go nearly as far into a save as you do unfortunately. Wow - wonderful work, thanks Dirk! I would agree on the unlucky aspect but these statistics require a bit more looking into - maybe I'll update the formula and see how it pans out.
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Post by Ben on Mar 15, 2020 20:02:54 GMT
July/August/September 2032Looking at the goalscoring record in September, one would be right to question what year and what league we are in - a rare feat of Brian Pena scoring, where he has already achieved 30% of his total for the last two seasons, combined. We have had a really strong start and I'm quite happy to have kept the scoreline respectable against the two giants. With 12 games to go until the mid point - having only Atletico to face out of the really big sides is a promising starting point. The goals have been shared out a little more and there is clearer evidence that it is my depth on the left wing and not the tactic that is stopping that part of the pitch from providing me any goals. Septien is a below average finisher and Lyndson, who was not able to secure a move away, is very young and untested. Between them, they have really struggled for goals (4 combined last season) but with Pena, a more natural goalscorer, playing wide left, we've been a noticeably better goal threat and Neyveson and Pena's link up has been sublime at times.
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Post by Dirk Nowitzki on Mar 16, 2020 20:58:04 GMT
Wow - wonderful work, thanks Dirk! I would agree on the unlucky aspect but these statistics require a bit more looking into - maybe I'll update the formula and see how it pans out. Yeah I agree, but unfortunately there is very limited data available about the shots. I'd say this formula gives an okay approximation, but it is by no means perfect because there are only a few types of shots and the way FM determines what are quality of the shot may be a bit misleading. For instance, in my first season with Leeds we massively outperformed xG (by 34.72 in 54 games), but we created (and scored) a lot of chances inside the half spaces in the box that are classified as 'other shots', which I feel this underestimates the quality of the chance. Besides this, Mateusz Klich hitting a ridiculous amount of long shots also helped for the over-performance. Normally you'd see a regression to the mean after such a hot streak of finishing, but I guess in FM the nature of the chances a tactic creates in combination with the limited amount of different shot classifications leads to consistent over/under performances of xG. Anyway, it was fun to experiment a bit with it but I don't think it's super helpful in FM, although graphs like the one below may make trends in your performances a little more insightful. Good luck with the new season, seems like you have a good chance to make it into Europe!
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Post by Ben on Mar 16, 2020 21:43:18 GMT
October/November 2032
Up and down couple of months for us with the down coming largely in November. We started well with a good win over struggling Levante and continued with a well fought draw away at Sociedad. Once again, our bogey team, Mallorca, packed a midfield and ended up with no attack duties as they ground out a 0-0 against us - as is becoming the norm of late. More dropped points against another team who wanted nothing, but left with nearly 70% of possession, in their own half - Athletic Club. Our down turn started against Valencia, where we were in a really strong position after 70 minutes. I made a triple substitute, bringing on some fresh legs and looking to exploit some tired defenders but, three minutes after, left back Bravo got himself injured. I moved to a 3-1-2-3 and they just obliterated me down the flanks and scored two quick goals. It dented our confidence and highlighted an area that I really need to work on going forward. We battled hard against Atletico but they were just too much and we suffered back to back defeats for the second time this season - although we have been dealt a cruel hand whereby we played Barca and Real and Valencia and Atletico in two separate runs. --- Next month we face Zaragoza and Leganes so that is going to be a big test against teams currently in similar positions as us.
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Post by Ben on Mar 18, 2020 11:00:12 GMT
New SigningI'm really pleased to tie up the signing of Oscar Galindo for €200k. He's going to be used as a wide playmaker on the right wing but he also has the attributes to be used as a winger as well. He's two footed, which should help him take on the defender both ways and there is only one real weak point - that is his finishing. His composure needs work but will develop a) over time and b) with a specific focus and his anticipation, decisions, determination and work rate are all good. I want to watch him on the pitch, in his intended two to three seasons with the B squad as I look to develop some traits that will help his game grow more. --- This leaves my best XI of my youth squad looking like this: Of this - I have really high hopes for Fulvio, Samaniego, Palacios (who is on a new contract with breakthrough prospect as part of his playing pathway for next year - I've attempted this as an incentive for him, but no idea how it'll work), Escobar and maybe Oprea as well as Galindo.
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Post by Ben on Mar 18, 2020 14:52:34 GMT
New affiliate clubOnce again, we strike up a deal with a top African club - this time Nigerian champions Enyimba. This doesn't quite fit my 'academy' policy, which I'd already stretched to include ASEC Mimosas but they are a proven producer of good newgens. That means my inroads into African youth now looks like this: I'm still too small of a club to be able to choose South American clubs so my next focus will be in Cameroon and Congo before maybe then looking at Tunisia and Egypt (but again, I still don't think we're big enough - and, at this time, I'd like to change my attention to S.America instead).
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Post by Ben on Mar 18, 2020 21:10:53 GMT
December 2032/January 2033Possibly two of the most fun months I've had as manager of Guadalajara. I have watched us score a lot more freely than ever before, playing wonderful possession football and exploiting spaces between lines and in channels thanks to some fantastic offensive positioning, creativity and execution of passing. We remained unbeaten in December, picking up four points against Zaragoza and Leganes, our two nearest rivals at the time. A rotated side put seven past Guixols, of the lower leagues in the cups, before some friendlies over the winter break. Despite going into the Betis game full of confidence, we couldn't find a way through - even though our play was fantastic and we definitely deserved much more. Two strong league wins, a hard fought draw with Celta where we, again, had our chances and a good win against bogey-team but also-getting-better-by-the-season side Mallorca topped out the leaague We fell apart in the cup and fatigue combined with a small playing squad saw us fade with two late concessions against Eibar. With a European campaign looking likely next year and the Copa del Rey a winnable competition - some extra bodies need to be recruited to handle the fixture back log. Sevilla are a top team and we play them away from home during our last sixteen fixtures but I feel that, given the gap back to eighth, that a top seven finish is attainable this year, giving us European football for the first time in our history. There is very little noise from the recruitment side as we look to utilise our academy and use progression through the B side but I am on the look out now for some depth, in the form of utility players, and a marquee signing who can come in and hopefully assist in Europe next year. --- With two wide slots and the impressive Samuel holding the fort on the right, I've been rotating Pena, Septien, Jose Carlos and Lyndson on the left - and only the former has really impressed. I made the move to allow Lyndson half a season at Zaragoza, where he'll be first choice - in order to see how he performs with regular minutes. In his three seasons for us he has averaged 6.50, 6.57 and 6.69 - hardly the form I want but he's largely been off the bench and hasn't had chance to hold down a role. Hopefully, first team minutes as a regular can change that. Secondly, I let Juan Jose Septien leave - he's been a good servant but I think he's far too one dimensional for our style of play now and we have outgrown him as such. It's a seminal moment, I guess, as he's the first academy graduate that will be moving on to another La Liga side and will be considered a good player there - something that hopefully our academy will continue to do.
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Post by ttgb on Apr 3, 2020 22:27:18 GMT
Are you still playing Ben
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Post by Ben on Apr 4, 2020 12:16:02 GMT
Are you still playing Ben Hello TTGB! I am indeed. However, I had a spell of nearly a week where I couldn't get on to the site and, with the lockdown and much more playing time, I'm now way past this date and into the 2035/36 season. I have been posting on the SI thread: community.sigames.com/topic/497981-fm20-tequila-and-mariachi/page/9/?tab=comments#comment-12355585I don't know what I'm going to do about my save here. I may just wait until my next save before continuing on this site although I'll be reading along still!
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Post by jawzy on Apr 4, 2020 16:19:56 GMT
Could just carry on from present. migt look bit odd. But we understand
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Post by ttgb on Apr 6, 2020 6:35:55 GMT
Are you still playing Ben Hello TTGB! I am indeed. However, I had a spell of nearly a week where I couldn't get on to the site and, with the lockdown and much more playing time, I'm now way past this date and into the 2035/36 season. I have been posting on the SI thread: community.sigames.com/topic/497981-fm20-tequila-and-mariachi/page/9/?tab=comments#comment-12355585I don't know what I'm going to do about my save here. I may just wait until my next save before continuing on this site although I'll be reading along still! Ah gutted. I have noticed the sit3 as asked me to log in a lot r3cently even though I asked it to remember my details. Could you copy and paste here?
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ianf
New Member
Posts: 92
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Post by ianf on Apr 8, 2020 23:42:08 GMT
Ooh lots to catch up on. ttgb it’s pretty easy to create a new si forum login to read it on there
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Post by Troopz on Apr 9, 2020 23:44:06 GMT
Good work Fam.
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Post by ttgb on Apr 12, 2020 7:18:09 GMT
Ooh lots to catch up on. ttgb it’s pretty easy to create a new si forum login to read it on there I was thinking more for the survival of this forum. Don't want someone finding this excellent thread and being diverted to another forum
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Post by Nick on Apr 27, 2020 7:52:52 GMT
I've spent a couple of days reading through this Ben and it's some of your best work yet. I've no idea how you don't use attributes, that would really mess me up. I like the idea of it, but in reality I think I'd struggle with actually knowing which player is better than which!
Props to some mad Excel skills as well mate.
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